Go Ahead, Make My Point!

As I ranted about recently, the economy, and how it affects the populace, and in turn, how the people affect the economy, is largely about perception. Here is case-in-point. From the Chester County Daily Local's ViewPoint guest column in yesterday's edition comes this ditty from Joel L. Naroff, the chief economist for Commerce Bank. It is entitled Whatever You Call It, Economic Conditions Are Not Good. His first sentence is "The economy managed to eke out another quarter of growth during the first part of this year." Hmm, so far so good, or is that bad? His next sentence, "But that will not change how anyone feels: We are in a major slowdown and it is irrelevant whether we technically meet the criteria for a recession." Um, excuse me but, and I'm certainly no economist, but I thought the fundamental definition of recession... well, actually, here is the definition from investorwords.com: A period of general economic decline; specifically, a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters. More from Mr. Naroff: "The economy actually managed to expand during the first three months of the year. Of course, a second consecutive 0.6% growth rate is hardly saying much."

Wow, talk about negative spin! In Philadelphia, where the perception of our sports fans is bad and worse, the term Negadelphia was coined by a local talk radio host. I now crown Mr. Naroff NegaEconomaniac!

Yes, just keep on spewing negativity whether the facts stand in the way or not. Now I'm not gonna try and say that 0.6% growth is something to stand up and cheer, but to me it represents an economy with underpinnings that are trying to maintain an even keel despite all the negative news and undercurrents wobbling consumer confidence. So, let me get the facts straight here. The economy grew by 0.6% EACH of the last two quarters. The definition of a recession is two straight quarters of decline. Hmmm, what exactly is the goal of mis-stating the facts here? Or is is just ignorance?

Anyway, whatever I call it, the economy is not in a recession. That's a fact.